FUTURE LARGE-SCALE “CLEAN” ENERGY TECHNOLOGY

N. V. Gorin, V. P. Kuchinov, V. V. Shidlovsky, A. V. Moiseev

It is emphasized that any technology transforming primary source energy into heat, mechanical motion or electricity inevitably results in waste production and contamination of the environment during its lifecycle. In the next century the current energetic structure will inevitably have to be changed in terms of decreasing the fraction of the present fossil fuel energy technologies and increasing the fraction of the “clean” ones. These technologies must fulfil conditions that are simple and consistent with universal human values but so far
none of the present energy technologies fully satisfies them. Large-scale nuclear power based on the closed-cycle fast neutrons reactors under development would satisfy all of these conditions. Political willpower, investments, and public approval are needed to make
such transition. It is noted that nuclear power is not yet supported by people; engrained phobias and stereotypes arise quickly, live long and change slowly so in the people’s mind nuclear power industry is still associated with radioactive contamination accidents. Sustained public awareness efforts with different groups of people are proposed in terms of changing this attitude; a special course is suggested to be included in the school and academic programs to educate young generation with new attitude to the nuclear power industry. The problem of transition to the large-scale nuclear power industry is proposed to be solved with participation of the energy corporations that can start to finance activities and predict potential preferences in the mid- and long-term periods. Therefore, it may be concluded that the nuclear power industry producing several orders of magnitude more energy/less waste per unit mass of material as compared with the traditional fossil fuel industries will be a large-scale “clean” energy technology. However, without political willpower, investments, and public approval its wide usage is almost unrealistic.

SOLVING THE PROBLEM OF TRANSFERRING A NUCLEAR REACTOR INTO SUBCRITICAL MODE BY METHOD OF MARKOV CHAIN

N. N. Oshkanov, G. E. Vaulin, M. A. Metelnikova

The purpose of the study is to determine the reasons why a nuclear reactor cannot reach subcritical state when the fast emergency protection system (FEPS) is triggered. The nuclear chain reaction (NCR) of a sequence of fission neutron cycles corresponds to a
Markov chain (process), so Markov kinetics corresponds to the kinetics of a NCR and allows one to derive the kinetics equation by the sequence product of the output neutron densities of a sequence of cycles. According to the Markov kinetics, the large stepwise jump in reactivity characteristic of FEPS actuation causes a sharp decrease in the density of prompt neutrons and a growing excess of delayed neutrons due to the slow decay of their precursors. Their growing excess forms a stable secondary chain reaction, which, as the initial chain reaction is terminated, is provided only by delayed neutrons. Classical kinetics does not note a stable secondary NCR and. on the contrary, postulates an asymptotic decrease in the neutron density to zero due to a decrease in the formation of delayed neutrons. It is shown that the parallel operation of fast and slow negative reactivity insertion systems leads to a gradual decrease in the total neutron density and puts the reactor into a subcritical state.

APPROACHES TO HEALTH DATA STATISTICAL MODELING ON THE EXAMPLE OF ASSESSMENT OF THE ACTUAL NUTRITION OF ADOLESCENTS

E.D. Konstantinova, T.A. Maslakova, A.N. Varaksin, S.S. Delets

The issues of taking into account the peculiarities of working with biomedical data when solving epidemiological problems using statistical methods are discussed in this method paper. The importance of the correct choice of statistical methods for the analysis of MBD, as well as a visual graphical representation of experimental numerical results from the field of epidemiology, is emphasized. The MBD array was retrospectively analyzed, containing 809 cases and 185 variables of various types. As a method of analysis, multiple linear regression was choose using a moving average approach. The practical problem of constructing models that describe the association of adolescent BMI with nutritional and some non-nutritive factors has been solved. The prevalence of underweight, overweight, and obesity among adolescent college students has been studied. The results of this study may be required in the development of preventive measures to optimize nutrition in organized groups, and will also help to increase the level of hygiene literacy of the interested circle of people.

RADON ASSESMENT OF BELOYARSK NPP

D. D. Desyatov, A. D. Onisсhenko, A. V. Vasilyev, А. V. Klymshin, V. O. Nikitenko, A. E. Samburov, M. V. Zhukovsky

The results of selective radon examination of the Beloyarsk NPP compartments are considered. 1 153 short-term measurements of equivalent equilibrium volumetric activity and 235 measurements by integrating track detectors were performed. The mean value of radon and thoron EEVA in the Beloyarsk NPP compartments is 18 Bq/m3 and 1,7 Br/m3 respectively.

HISTORY OF SCIENCE ABOUT THE PROBLEM OF ANTHROPOCENE AND DECONSTRUCTION OF NATURE

Yu. S. Shipitsyna

The article deals with the problem of rethinking anthropocene in the multidisciplinary space of history of science. The author suggests the observation of key texts about history, science and ecological crisis, among there are works of Caroline Merchant, Bruno Latour,
Lorrein Daston, Michel Serres, Timothy Morton and Donna Haraway. Through the examples of their researches the author shows the high value of methodology and experience of history of science. To conclude the author highlights the cognitive opportunities of this discipline as field of scientific reflection and space for dialogue about contemporary dares of anthropocene and ecological problems. The special attention is paid the term nature, its historical variability and richness of senses.

CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS IN SURFACE DEPOSITS IN URBAN AREAS

E. O. Ilgasheva

The article examines the contribution of fragments of building materials to the formation of loose surface deposits in ten Russian cities: Ufa, Perm, Tyumen, Chelyabinsk, Nizhny Tagil, Magnitogorsk, Nizhny Novgorod, Rostov-on-Don, Murmansk, Yekaterinburg. During the study, data were obtained on the elemental composition and morphology of particles of building materials included in the composition of surface deposits. The particles under study were taken from samples of surface sediment, divided into granulometric fractions. Fractions 100–250 and 250–1000 µm were studied. Particles similar to fragments of building materials were isolated using visual diagnostic methods and studied using scanning electron microscopy, including energy-dispersive spectroscopy. During the study, the isolated particles were classified into three classes: fragments of ceramic bricks, fragments of paint, fragments of plaster and cement mixtures. In addition to the petrogenic elements that form the basis of the particles, heavy metals (Cr, Zn, Pb) were present in the building materials. The data obtained indicate that particles of building materials are part of the technogenic component of sediments in the urban environment.

NONPARAMETRIC RANDOMIZATION TEST: IDEA, ALGORITHM, ADVANTAGES, DISADVANTAGES AND APPLICATION EXAMPLE

A. P. Sergeev, A. S. Butorova, E. A. Koryukin, V. S. Bobakov, S. V. Pavlova

The permutation approach has a number of advantages over traditional parametric statistical methods, which makes it preferable for data processing in some research situations. Permutational methods do not use the assumptions about the shape of the probability distribution; they are suitable for small data sets and give the researcher great freedom in choosing test statistics. This paper is devoted to the use of one of the variants of permutation methods – a nonparametric randomization test. The authors outline the premises of the randomization test and provide some formalizations for the case of comparing two groups of observations. An application example of a randomization test to test a statistical hypothesis about the equality of the intergroup difference in means to zero in cases of right- and left-sided critical sets is considered. The example compares the performance of two purification methods – standard and new ones. In the right-sided case, the test statistic is the sum of purification times in the group of the standard method; in the left-sided case, it is the intergroup difference in mean purification times. Using a randomization test, it was shown that the new purification method does not provide a statistically significant advantage in purification time over the standard method.

THE STUDY OF THE MORTALITY OF CHILDREN FROM CANCER IN THE TERRITORIES OF THE CHELYABINSK REGION EXPOSED TO RADIOACTIVE AND CHEMICAL CONTAMINATION BY METHODS OF MATHEMATICAL STATISTICS

A. A. Zhivoderov, L. G. Kon’shina

In the territories of the Chelyabinsk Region that are radioactively contaminated, as a result of the activities of the Mayak project, the level of pediatric cancer mortality has significantly increased. To study the statistical indicators of infant mortality from cancer in the territories under consideration and to identify the impact of radioactive and chemical pollutants on it. Methods of mathematical statistics were used for data processing, such as analysis of variance, construction of confidence intervals for odds ratios, calculation of rank correlation coefficients. According to the results of the study, it can be stated that in the period up to1976, there is a significant (p<0.1) influence of the proximity factor of the territory to the Mayak software on the mortality rate of children from cancer. In the period after 1976, such an influence is not reliably detected. In the period after 1976 a significant (p<0.1) correlation is already revealed between the degree of proximity of the territory to the Argayash thermal power plant and the level of oncological mortality of children. In the period before 1976, such a correlation did not appear. In the studied territories of the Chelyabinsk region, during the observation period, there was a significant redistribution of the value of infant mortality from cancer. If in the period before 1976, the maximum mortality was observed in the areas adjacent to the Mayak software, then in the period after 1976 – in the territories near the Argayash thermal power plant. Revealed greater sensitivity to the effects of risk factors for cancer in boys compared with girls. Along with chronic radiation exposure, the significant role of chemical carcinogenic load in the growth of pediatric cancer mortality is shown.